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 Sovereign Default in Europe and USA 
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Minauros

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Post Re: Sovereign Default in Europe and USA
US loses AAA credit rating after S&P downgrade
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-14428930


Sat Aug 06, 2011 12:26 am
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Maladomini
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Post Re: Sovereign Default in Europe and USA
Of course, because there are just savings and shortages. For each dollar the state spends less, there will be 50 cents of taxes get lost, due to a negative effect on economic growth. The only way out of the crisis is to increase taxes for the higher incomes. As long policy in the United States is not able put the public finances on steady ground the trend to increasing public debts and economical problems can't be stopped. The tax rate in the USA is about 24% of the national output, whereas in Western Europe it is about 35%. There is to much private capital which can not be invested because of missing demand. Private consumption in the USA is often spend for foreign goods and the public demand is reduced due to a chronical underfunding of the public households.

(I hope my grammar is not too bad)

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Die Stille herrscht am Grab und selbst die Eulen schweigen.
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Sat Aug 06, 2011 1:53 am
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Cania
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Post Re: Sovereign Default in Europe and USA
demon17 wrote:
The only way out of the crisis is to increase taxes for the higher incomes.


The masses would rather see the economy gutted since they've been brainwashed into thinking that the rich pay the same percentage of their income in taxes as they do [which is not true], and further believes that taxing them any higher than the masses would be a terrible sinful act of tyranny.

The democrats wanted to bring the top brackets back up to pre-Bush levels in these reforms, the republicans systematically refused to allow it. Because of that we were downgraded. So now we'll inevitably need to raise taxes to cover the increase in debt interest we'll be seeing in the future. Meaning either taxes or the debt ceiling will have to go up anyway.

If I were to speculate I'd say that the increase in taxes & the debt ceiling to cover the increase in debt interest costs is going to be worse than what would have happened if they had simply agreed to raising upper bracket tax rates & capital gains rates.

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Sat Aug 06, 2011 9:18 am
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Post Re: Sovereign Default in Europe and USA
There pobably will be costs about 100 billion $ to pay the higher interest rates which are caused by the new S&P rating. Questionaires point out that more than 80% of the voters of both parties are angry about their politicians, but 92% of the voters of Tea Party members. So they might loose more than others. All in all America has lost a few years of hegemony. I thought it would dominate the world for another 50-100 years, but now I think it will be less although China is not as steady as it seems and the EU might break into peaces. I think it might take 5-10 years ore more before business in America will be bounced back and other industries can fill the holes wich the financial sector and the real estate industry have left. Very hard times for the poor. :?

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In diesen Nächten tanzen kalte Sterne starre Reigen.
Am Grab der Träume suchen Schatten nach Vergangenheit,
verloren, längst zerrissen von der Hysterie der Zeit.
Die Stille herrscht am Grab und selbst die Eulen schweigen.
Ein Traum zerbricht ...


Sat Aug 06, 2011 11:11 am
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Malbolge
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Post Re: Sovereign Default in Europe and USA
ThePaganMafia wrote:
No system is sustainable. Eventually the system fails, balance of power shifts, and the world changes. Sound like situation normal. Its just our turn to take a ride into chaos.


Amen. I would also add that the government is only as good as the people. In the end the people are at fault for what they allowed the government to do in the first place. The American people in general is waking up though, and they learned an important lesson: Complacency is a bitch. America should of woke up during the 2008 elections, but now it's a day late and a dollar short.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just read about China is now unwilling to bail us out now that our credit rating went down; can't say I'm surprised.

And concerning taxing the rich, they already put their money in foreign banks so they don't have to pay the federal taxes on their earnings, so I don't think the tax hike is gonna solve the problem. It's like putting razor wire on an electric fence; they already know that it should be avoided, and putting that addition on the fence isn't going to change the situation. The fix is increasing tariffs on goods American companies are bringing in to discourage their current practice, and start removing regulations unfriendly to businesses in order to promote their growth. Besides, everyone knows that taxing the rich is a BS move because they have buddies on both sides on the aisle that will take care of them *cough bailout*.

In addition to this, I'd like to add that the Gov't has never been known for saving money, demon17. Whenever we get some sort of income rolling in, every private interest group, politician, and 3rd world country comes in and says "entitlementz pl0x, lulz.", and the government goes on a spending spree. We never save to pay off the debts; we always spend. This is what's pissing off 80% of the country, and that's the primary peeve of the tea party contrary to what left wing media tells the masses. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if 80% of the country starts going tea party because of the way things are going right now.

And sgath, The blame rests on Democrats, Republicans, the people, foreign nations, damn near everybody. It's an event made up from a whole bunch of smaller events. Right now I wouldn't trust the Dems (or the Repubs for that matter) to fix a burnt out light bulb because their solutions would mean throwing taxpayer money away and making 3 or more entitlement programs and a government bureaucracy for that particular problem. So to say that the Republican's unwillingness to compromise was what started the downgrade is completely inaccurate with all due respect; especially when Obama placed conditions that he wouldn't budge on. Piss poor leadership on Obama's part. But then again I've always come to expect that from him so it's really no surprise.


sgath92 wrote:

If I were to speculate I'd say that the increase in taxes & the debt ceiling to cover the increase in debt interest costs is going to be worse than what would have happened if they had simply agreed to raising upper bracket tax rates & capital gains rates.


I have to agree. You have to have something to tax in order to make a tax. And since the big businesses have their earnings in foreign banks that just leaves us poor folks to pay the tab.
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And on another note, I wanted to copy/paste on some news articles regarding the deficit from a news source I use. Never know might find something interesting :)
http://www.politifact.com/search/?q=deficit

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Last edited by Arbitrator on Sat Aug 06, 2011 2:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Sat Aug 06, 2011 12:49 pm
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Cania
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Post Re: Sovereign Default in Europe and USA
Arbitrator wrote:
And sgath, The blame rests on Democrats, Republicans, the people, foreign nations, damn near everybody. It's an event made up from a whole bunch of smaller events. Right now I wouldn't trust the Dems (or the Repubs for that matter) to fix a burnt out light bulb because their solutions would mean throwing taxpayer money away and making 3 or more entitlement programs and a government bureaucracy for that particular problem. So to say that the Republican's unwillingness to compromise was what started the downgrade is completely inaccurate with all due respect; especially when Obama placed conditions that he wouldn't budge on. Piss poor leadership on Obama's part. But then again I've always come to expect that from him so it's really no surprise.


I don't mean to make it sound as if I am letting the democrats off the hook, I have a plethora of separate complaints there. But in terms of the so-called but not-really "compromise" on the debt crisis we knew from Moody's and the other two agencies that we needed to do more than simply adjust the debt ceiling if we wanted to retain our AAA rating. The democrat plan would have fulfilled the international banking community's short term demands. The republicans wouldn't allow it.

After that both parties would have needed to do a bunch of things they flat out refuse to do. Like double the capital gains. Or address our economy-killing hyper inflation problem by reforming the commodities market. Or sack the fed for ignoring their legally mandated priorities. Or scrap the tax code for something that isn't built by the rich for the rich. Etc.

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Sat Aug 06, 2011 1:59 pm
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Malbolge
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Post Re: Sovereign Default in Europe and USA
sgath92 wrote:
Arbitrator wrote:
And sgath, The blame rests on Democrats, Republicans, the people, foreign nations, damn near everybody. It's an event made up from a whole bunch of smaller events. Right now I wouldn't trust the Dems (or the Repubs for that matter) to fix a burnt out light bulb because their solutions would mean throwing taxpayer money away and making 3 or more entitlement programs and a government bureaucracy for that particular problem. So to say that the Republican's unwillingness to compromise was what started the downgrade is completely inaccurate with all due respect; especially when Obama placed conditions that he wouldn't budge on. Piss poor leadership on Obama's part. But then again I've always come to expect that from him so it's really no surprise.


I don't mean to make it sound as if I am letting the democrats off the hook, I have a plethora of separate complaints there. But in terms of the so-called but not-really "compromise" on the debt crisis we knew from Moody's and the other two agencies that we needed to do more than simply adjust the debt ceiling if we wanted to retain our AAA rating. The democrat plan would have fulfilled the international banking community's short term demands. The republicans wouldn't allow it.

After that both parties would have needed to do a bunch of things they flat out refuse to do. Like double the capital gains. Or address our economy-killing hyper inflation problem by reforming the commodities market. Or sack the fed for ignoring their legally mandated priorities. Or scrap the tax code for something that isn't built by the rich for the rich. Etc.


Something I found interesting: http://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/sta ... nment-spe/

Maybe we do need a constitutional spending limit? Make it so that it can fluctuate based on the currency value, but still have some flexibility to allow just enough so that basic gov't services can be rendered. Me thinks America sees a lot of entitlement programs as "essential", and that is part of the problem. Once we do a gastric bypass surgery on a morbidly obese gov't, it'll see that it really doesn't need those junk programs in order to operate?

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Sat Aug 06, 2011 2:18 pm
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Cania
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Post Re: Sovereign Default in Europe and USA
Arbitrator wrote:
Maybe we do need a constitutional spending limit? Make it so that it can fluctuate based on the currency value, but still have some flexibility to allow just enough so that basic gov't services can be rendered. Me thinks America sees a lot of entitlement programs as "essential", and that is part of the problem. Once we do a gastric bypass surgery on a morbidly obese gov't, it'll see that it really doesn't need those junk programs in order to operate?


A lot of entitlement programs are essential. Half the country is too poor to qualify for the income tax. The middle class is disappearing, the people are becoming poorer, and they need these services.

It's the pet projects and corruption that's not. But they'd rather take the shortfalls out on things like food stamps or the [raided] social security.

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Sat Aug 06, 2011 2:51 pm
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Post Re: Sovereign Default in Europe and USA
Quote:
And concerning taxing the rich, they already put their money in foreign banks so they don't have to pay the federal taxes on their earnings, so I don't think the tax hike is gonna solve the problem.
We've got the same problem with Switzerland nearby. A nice steady country with a strict bank secrecy. For decades billions of Euros from Germany got lost through tax avoidance each year. There is an agreement between the two gouvernments now. Grmans who can not prove that thhe taxes are paid for their money in Switzerland have to pay the capital tax to Sitzerland. They transfer it to Germany. German revenue boards have the right to do spot tests there. So it is possible to gain control about the money, if a gouvernment wants to have it.

The rich payed higher taxes in the Clinton Years, before Bush Jr. suspendet the corresponding laws. The federal household was balanced for two years.

Quote:
We never save to pay off the debts; we always spend. This is what's pissing off 80% of the country, and that's the primary peeve of the tea party contrary to what left wing media tells the masses. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if 80% of the country starts going tea party because of the way things are going right now.


In 1947 public American debts were about 100% of the gross domestic product. America is the only country in the world who was able to reduce that debt and to live 50 years in wealth. So it's proven that America's economy can grow much faster than the public debts.

There is just one fundamental problem, for the capitalists it's more profitable to invest in the American political system to shovel the money from the poor to the rich than to invest in new jobs. As long as the voters don't realize this phenomenon, the concentration of the capital in the hands of a few will be going on like Karl Marx predicted it. I think the modern wellfare state is the best answer to avoid that.

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In diesen Nächten tanzen kalte Sterne starre Reigen.
Am Grab der Träume suchen Schatten nach Vergangenheit,
verloren, längst zerrissen von der Hysterie der Zeit.
Die Stille herrscht am Grab und selbst die Eulen schweigen.
Ein Traum zerbricht ...


Sat Aug 06, 2011 10:17 pm
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Post Re: Sovereign Default in Europe and USA
Check out sites like Zero Hedge and The Coming Depression.

In general, we are looking at increasing credit needed to fund increasing production and consumption of goods. As more move from manufacturing and agriculture to service industries, they start to earn more from financial speculation, which increases credit further, and ultimately leading to one credit crunch after another. Given that, we should expect long-term global economic crisis.

Finally, behind all this is global oil production remaining relatively flat since 2006, with biofuels and other sources of energy now being used to meet increasing energy demand. Since global manufacturing and agricultural are heavily dependent on the use of oil, then at best we can expect only basic needs met by various energy sources. It gets worse as whatever demand destruction in richer countries takes place is offset by increasing resource demand in the rest of the world. In any case, a middle class lifestyle will not be sustainable.


Mon Aug 08, 2011 6:52 am
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Post Re: Sovereign Default in Europe and USA
ralfy wrote:
Check out sites like Zero Hedge and The Coming Depression.

In general, we are looking at increasing credit needed to fund increasing production and consumption of goods. As more move from manufacturing and agriculture to service industries, they start to earn more from financial speculation, which increases credit further, and ultimately leading to one credit crunch after another. Given that, we should expect long-term global economic crisis.

Finally, behind all this is global oil production remaining relatively flat since 2006, with biofuels and other sources of energy now being used to meet increasing energy demand. Since global manufacturing and agricultural are heavily dependent on the use of oil, then at best we can expect only basic needs met by various energy sources. It gets worse as whatever demand destruction in richer countries takes place is offset by increasing resource demand in the rest of the world. In any case, a middle class lifestyle will not be sustainable.


We can make it sustainable. It would just require more people choosing to have less [or no] kids. There is probably a "sweet spot" in global population that would allow everyone to have a fair chance at a comfortable sustainable middle class lifestyle. The problem is if global population starts to get higher than whatever that point is, demand will exceed supply and only the richer individuals will have access to their wants & needs.

I think we're already way higher than whatever this "sweet spot" is, and global population graphed out shows no signs of slowing down. But that doesn't mean it can't happen. Unless something like a dark matter or cold fusion breakthrough intervenes to make it a moot point.

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Mon Aug 08, 2011 4:40 pm
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Post Re: Sovereign Default in Europe and USA
sgath92 wrote:

We can make it sustainable. It would just require more people choosing to have less [or no] kids. There is probably a "sweet spot" in global population that would allow everyone to have a fair chance at a comfortable sustainable middle class lifestyle. The problem is if global population starts to get higher than whatever that point is, demand will exceed supply and only the richer individuals will have access to their wants & needs.

I think we're already way higher than whatever this "sweet spot" is, and global population graphed out shows no signs of slowing down. But that doesn't mean it can't happen. Unless something like a dark matter or cold fusion breakthrough intervenes to make it a moot point.


Not just population but consumption per capita in order to sustain a middle class lifestyle. Only around 20 pct of the world's population is able to afford a middle class lifestyle and it is responsible for over 60 pct of personal consumption.

Other problems: a decreasing population through lower birth rates leads to population aging, which negates any resource savings from lower birth rates. In addition, the drive for a middle class lifestyle increases resource consumption considerably.

The only way out is for the middle class to cut down on resource consumption (which they won't do) and for most of the global population not to demand for a middle class lifestyle (which they also won't do). Ultimately, as oil production drops, then the middle class, which is heavily dependent on manufacturing and mechanized agriculture, will not last. In the long term, we will be lucky if we can meet even basic needs as we wait for population to stabilize. Meanwhile, there will be possibilities of conflict (including resource wars), environmental damage, etc.


Tue Aug 09, 2011 4:33 am
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Post Re: Sovereign Default in Europe and USA
I've read an interview with an English economist. He got a macro percerption of the economic crisis. He said, the real reason of this crisis are the constraints of the fuel based energy concept. If business is grwowing energy prices, especially oil increases to a maximum of $ 150 per barrel. This always leads to decline of economy, because of too much costs. The anglo-american capitalism tried to escape this gap through a deregulation of the capital markets which leaded to the crisis of the finance sector 2007-2008. The only way out is a new energy concept which is based on regenerative energy, like solar energy, wind-power bio gas etc. I think he is right. Peak Oil was 2006, since than the oil production is going down. But there is no political intiative to change the energetic concept worldwide. As far as I'm informed only Germany is trying to gain 100% of it's energy from regenerative sources until 2050. Although it is still more expensive than oil or gas.

It seems Greece is going bancrupt, the Euro becomes cheaper. Germany will become more competitive. Will we have a new competition between oil based anglo-american economy with a dominating finance sector and a middle european economy wich is based on regerative energies and a bigger industrial sector? If this will happens, one of both sides must loose and a conflict like that might be the begin of the decline of the western world.
You might think this is economy and no politics, but the regulation of the capital markets is a necessity to get political control about the capital markets. The short sighted concept of profit maximation impedes long range concepts of societal development. It's a decision between private profit and collective wealth.

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In diesen Nächten tanzen kalte Sterne starre Reigen.
Am Grab der Träume suchen Schatten nach Vergangenheit,
verloren, längst zerrissen von der Hysterie der Zeit.
Die Stille herrscht am Grab und selbst die Eulen schweigen.
Ein Traum zerbricht ...


Mon Oct 03, 2011 2:02 am
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Cania
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Post Re: Sovereign Default in Europe and USA
demon17 wrote:
I've read an interview with an English economist. He got a macro percerption of the economic crisis. He said, the real reason of this crisis are the constraints of the fuel based energy concept. If business is grwowing energy prices, especially oil increases to a maximum of $ 150 per barrel. This always leads to decline of economy, because of too much costs. The anglo-american capitalism tried to escape this gap through a deregulation of the capital markets which leaded to the crisis of the finance sector 2007-2008. The only way out is a new energy concept which is based on regenerative energy, like solar energy, wind-power bio gas etc. I think he is right. Peak Oil was 2006, since than the oil production is going down. But there is no political intiative to change the energetic concept worldwide. As far as I'm informed only Germany is trying to gain 100% of it's energy from regenerative sources until 2050. Although it is still more expensive than oil or gas.

It seems Greece is going bancrupt, the Euro becomes cheaper. Germany will become more competitive. Will we have a new competition between oil based anglo-american economy with a dominating finance sector and a middle european economy wich is based on regerative energies and a bigger industrial sector? If this will happens, one of both sides must loose and a conflict like that might be the begin of the decline of the western world.
You might think this is economy and no politics, but the regulation of the capital markets is a necessity to get political control about the capital markets. The short sighted concept of profit maximation impedes long range concepts of societal development. It's a decision between private profit and collective wealth.


If the price of gas was tied directly to the price of oil, things would be a lot better here right now. But because of the way gas has been put on the commodities market, and how the regulations of that market has been changed over the last twenty years or so has made it so US gas prices are no longer actually being based on supply or demand. For example a few days ago when oil was trading at 80-something dollars a barrel, gasoline was trading so high that it was costing people nearly $4/gal to fill up their cars. When the price of gas is being based on the price of oil, it takes oil trading at around $150/barrel to make gasoline that expensive. So what happened was as soon as our economy was starting to get better, all these traders jumped to the commodities market and pushed the cost of gas & food so high with run away speculation that it put the economy right back in the dirt.

Until we start taking that kind of economy killing hyper-speculation seriously our economy won't recover. Alternative energy practices can't cure this, because they depend on two things that the traders are also hyper-speculating on [metals & the "rare earths" market]. Global demand for things like copper is going up as the world industrializes & starts to need better power generation systems but this demand increase is not as volatile as the prices of copper have been. Just recently it was at a, what, 20-year high at the scrap yards? All because of the over speculation. Global demand increases really do not cause major spikes from one day to the next [normally, anyway].

And it's only going to get worse as more traders switch to robotrading.

But that's just for gas costs. Another thing that's going on over here is a push to privatize the grid. They did this where I live a couple years ago. We were promised that it would lower our prices because it would inspire competition, and that it would improve service for the same reason. Instead the private company that replaced the public electric company immediately increased rates by 20 per-cent [because now they need that odd thing called "a profit margin"] and then used the money they gained from that to... wait for it... invest in public utilities around the country. Now here's a question to pose for you all: If public utilities are these inefficient, terrible money pits that the Republicans say they are, why would a private utility company pour all its profits into investing in them? As for upgrading the grid & introducing new power plants. That's not happening.

The consumers end up being squeezed for all the essentials [power, food, gas, tuition costs] and end up having nothing left over to use to spur demand for consumer products like electronics, entertainment, cars, clothes, etc. And now there's talk of doing the same thing to another "commodity" that has traditionally been plentiful & cheap for everyone in the country: Water utilities, water rights, etc. Imagine the state of the economy if people had to pay $4/gal for water.

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Tue Oct 04, 2011 7:00 am
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Post Re: Sovereign Default in Europe and USA
It's interesting to see how he perception changes when people live in a different country or political system. First I want to thank ralfy for hie short and precise description of the energy gap. Now a comment to sgath. I learn a lot from you.
4 Dollars for a gallon which is more than 4 litres is a dream for a German. A Dollar os 70 Euro Cent wgich are 1,40 Deutschmarks. I paid this price twenty years ago. I pay 2 Dollars for a litre of diesel or 9 dollars for a gallon of it. The taxes for fuel a very high here. That's why I drive the smallest GM (Opel) with a Japanese engine. That combination is cheaper than VW, especially when it's reimported from France, where the car prices are lower than in Germany. It was ten month old when I bought it. A 14 000 Dollar car. Maybe you understand why Germany is looking for an alternative energy concept.

Sure Windenergy needs rare earths, but they will be found real soon at the bottom of the sea. Japanese and German explorers are working on. Another idea is to mine methan gas from the bottom of the sea. Through global warming millions of tons of methan gas from the bottom of the sea will reach the atmosphere and destroy it. So it would be a double use, to mine it befeore it reaches the atmosphere. Human beeings have a lot of ideas. It is expensive to develop this ideas to competitive products. If we always stay on the cheapest way, we have a horizon about a few month, but not about decades. It will be more expensive for 20-30 years to produce electricity from wind or solar power if we ignore the costs of environmental pollution, like the majority does. But we will have much more intelligent solutions if we don't.

Prices are one indicator not a holy cow. They hide lots of information and are dependant of the perception. If we reduce perception and ignore social costs of wages which are so low that the workers can't live from or the environmental costs which we will have to pay things become cheap, but we loose the ability of antipacitory governance and probably will find ourselves in a dead end.

The technique to push up economy to private and public debts is a dead end like that. Nations become like junkeys who are dependant on the next credit shot. Politics can't rule economy succesful. We have learned from Socialism, but economy can't substitute politics as well. We have to find a compromize. We need a master plan for the development of the world which is regarding more information than the prices show and which is not determined through the short termed ups and downs of the markets. I know it sounds pathetic, but this is the issue.

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In diesen Nächten tanzen kalte Sterne starre Reigen.
Am Grab der Träume suchen Schatten nach Vergangenheit,
verloren, längst zerrissen von der Hysterie der Zeit.
Die Stille herrscht am Grab und selbst die Eulen schweigen.
Ein Traum zerbricht ...


Tue Oct 04, 2011 5:08 pm
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